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I accurately predicted the first place winners last time around. Let's see if I can keep my record going!
South Carolina: McCain, Huckabee, Thompson, Paul, Romney, Giuliani.
Nevada: Obama, Clinton, Edwards; Romney, Paul, McCain, Giuliani, Huckabee, Thompson.
If you just can't bear to vote for Ron Paul, may I suggest Fred Thompson? After much consideration, I've decided he'd be an acceptable second choice. Unfortunately, I think he's dropping out unless he can outright win South Carolina. Apparently he was deeply offended by the rumor that found its way onto the cable news networks to the effect that he was dropping out after Iowa and endorsing McCain. I'm glad something finally got him motivated though it's probably too little too late. If Fred actually did place first in SC, then I'd say the odds of a brokered convention shoot way up. The party establishment has settled on Romney, though it's hard to find anyone not named Hugh Hewitt who's actually excited about him. I'm pretty confident that either McCain or Huckabee will win SC, so expect the incandescent rage directed their way to get turned up a few degrees more.
I really hope Obama wins Nevada. It's been a while since we've had a fresh "Verily, you are the Son of God!" reaction from the mainstream media. Of course if he loses to Lady MacBeth, then the media will declare, "And lo, Obama could not perform any miracles in Las Vegas because of their lack of faith." The Democratic race isn't nearly as interesting to me since both front runners are completely unacceptable, and they'll have a clear nominee after Super Tuesday. In contrast, after eight years of George W. Bush, the Republican Party is crumbling before our eyes. I have no idea why any sane political commentator still considers Giuliani a front runner, but for the sake of argument I'll pretend he hasn't been losing to Ron Paul. The four front runners - McCain, Huckabee, Romney, and Giuliani - all carry baggage that makes them unacceptable to one or more of the party's constituencies such as social conservatives, fiscal conservatives, and "national security" conservatives.
The Republicans are going to get slaughtered in November, especially if Obama is the Dem nominee, so in that sense it doesn't really matter who they nominate. I'm toying with the idea that Huckabee might be the least of four evils. And I would get a great deal of schadenfreude of seeing the tables turned after so many decades. Social conservatives would finally get to be the ones who said to the other members of the GOP coalition, "Get to the back of the bus, sit down, shut up, and do what you're told. We're running this show. Whatttaya rubes gonna do? Vote for Hillary? Vote third party? HAHAHAHAHA!"
EDIT, 10 am: I didn't know the Nevada caucuses were closing so early. Looks like I was right about Romney taking first, though I can't say I'm happy about it.
EDIT, 11:46 am: Paul came in second!
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Happy birthday to one of the greatest Americans who ever lived.
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