The Napoleon of Thought Crime ([info]darthbeckman) wrote,
@ 2008-08-11 22:57:00
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Entry tags:current events, war

Putin Derangement Syndrome
It's rather bewildering to see the same people who cheered for Kosovo's independence sternly lecturing Russia on the territorial integrity of Georgia. It's also confusing to see that so many American conservatives, who constantly blast the mainstream media for being biased and unreliable, are taking everything the MSM says about this latest conflict at face value.

There are three things one should keep in mind when following this war: 1) Most importantly, we need to pray for peace between these two Orthodox nations; 2) There aren't really any "good guys" in this fight; and 3) It is none of our damned business.

I haven't followed all of the particulars or all of the history leading up to the war. I do know something of the US's policies regarding Eastern Europe and Russia over the past few years, and it's difficult to avoid the conviction that we've deliberately tried to anger the Russians at every opportunity (the only alternative explanation is the government is hopelessly tone deaf.) How would you feel if Russia aggressively courted Canada, Mexico, Cuba, and the rest of Central America to form a "defensive alliance," where each country would be obligated to go to war on the other's behalf? How would you feel if the Russians then decided to install some "defensive" missile sites in Canada and Mexico?

All the usual suspects have found their new Hitler of the Month. Even if Georgia were a member of NATO, the US would not go to war over her. And that is an important lesson of geopolitics: never, ever, under any circumstances whatsoever, make a promise that you cannot or will not keep. I don't blame the average Georgian citizen one bit for feeling betrayed. It's even worse once you understand that even if Georgia had full NATO membership, hard political realities would prevent any Western nation from militarily coming to her aid.

Before concluding that we are ordained by God to fix every problem and right every wrong in the world, it would be helpful to learn something about the region. Let's also remember the plank in our own eye, hm? What major differences exist between South Ossetia and Kosovo, other than the fact that Kosovo is thousands of miles away from the US while South Ossetia borders Russia?

EDIT: This is a good example to illustrate the Just War criteria of "proportionate response." When I said earlier that there aren't really any good guys in this fight, what I meant was Georgia started this war. Now it seems Georgia is offering to let South Ossetia go (if I read that story correctly), and pretty much anything else the Russians want; it's not like Georgia is in much of a position to resist anymore. I'm not convinced the Russians intend to annex Georgia (and breathless worrying about Putin wanting to reform the Soviet Union are just plain silly), but their rejection of cease-fire offers, which include independence for South Ossetia crosses the line into a disproportionate response to Georgian president Saakashvili's blundering, i.e. an unjust war. By all means we should try to broker peace between the two nations, while keeping in mind there are no vital American interest worth going to war over.




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[info]mrbogey
2008-08-12 06:59 am UTC (link)
'what I meant was Georgia started this war. Now it seems Georgia is offering to let South Ossetia go (if I read that story correctly), and pretty much anything else the Russians want; it's not like Georgia is in much of a position to resist anymore. I'm not convinced the Russians intend to annex Georgia'

Well...you believe.

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[info]jordan179
2008-08-12 01:12 pm UTC (link)
How would you feel if the Russians then decided to install some "defensive" missile sites in Canada and Mexico?

Why is "defensive" in scare quotes? Are you saying that there are American plans to install offensive missiles in countries bordering Russia? I'd only heard about the plans to install the anti-missiles, which are defensive missiles (they don't have any offensive fire mode, as far as I know).

Even if Georgia were a member of NATO, the US would not go to war over her.

Actually, we would. If Georgia were a member of NATO, this would have been the first stage of World War III. That's probably why NATO didn't expand that far east, because of precisely this possibility.



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[info]darthbeckman
2008-08-12 02:29 pm UTC (link)
Why is "defensive" in scare quotes? Are you saying that there are American plans to install offensive missiles in countries bordering Russia?

Put yourself in the Russians' shoes. Would you take our assurances at face value? Would you take the Russians' assurances at face value if they said they wanted to put defensive missiles in Canada and Mexico? I don't think we're putting offensive missiles in Eastern Europe, but US credibility is pretty low right now.

Actually, we would.

No, we wouldn't. That's why we never should have dangled NATO membership in front of Georgia in the first place - hard political realities would prevent us from coming to her aid militarily. Don't make promises you cannot or will not keep.

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[info]jordan179
2008-08-12 02:55 pm UTC (link)
Why is "defensive" in scare quotes? Are you saying that there are American plans to install offensive missiles in countries bordering Russia?

Put yourself in the Russians' shoes. Would you take our assurances at face value?


Well, yes, given the rather obvious physical differences between offensive and defensive missiles, and the facilities required for them, which could be easily seen by virtually any sort of reconaissance. Do you really need this explained in detail?

I don't think we're putting offensive missiles in Eastern Europe, but US credibility is pretty low right now.

I disagree with the statement that "US credibility is pretty low right now," and if the Russians are using this as an excuse, that's all it is. An excuse.

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[info]darthbeckman
2008-08-13 04:45 am UTC (link)
If you've done nothing wrong, you've got nothing to fear, right?

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[info]jordan179
2008-08-13 05:33 am UTC (link)
If you've done nothing wrong, you've got nothing to fear, right?

In terms of an American attack, yes. Who have we attacked within the last quarter-century who didn't do quite a lot wrong?

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[info]jordan179
2008-08-12 02:58 pm UTC (link)
Actually, we would.

No, we wouldn't.


We would have if Georgia had joined NATO. We're quite serious about defending NATO members. Failing to intervene would have called our defense of Western Europe into question, so we would have had little choice.

The interesting hypotheticals here are -- would this have deterred the Russians, or would they have made the same assumptions that you just did? And if the latter, would the conflict have remained conventional?

That's why we never should have dangled NATO membership in front of Georgia in the first place - hard political realities would prevent us from coming to her aid militarily.

South Korea retroactively falls under almost six decades of Communist dictatorship with a cry of anguish at the force of your logic. Which is why your assumption isn't a safe one.

Don't make promises you cannot or will not keep.

We didn't make such a promise. You will note that we didn't admit Georgia into NATO.

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[info]darthbeckman
2008-08-13 04:44 am UTC (link)
Failing to intervene would have called our defense of Western Europe into question

And who are we defending Western Europe from these days? Why do they need us?

You will note that we didn't admit Georgia into NATO.

No, but the US and western Europe did string Georgia along for years, which was grossly unfair to Georgia in several ways.

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